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Europe and the financial crisis
Exame - October 2008
This was supposed to be an American crisis, based on American subprime mortgages and American-style capitalism. So why do European banks seem now to be suffering more than their American counterparts? No one’s nerves were steadied by the vote in the US...
Exame - September 2008
Japan is an endlessly frustrating country for all those who wish that the world’s second largest economy would do better. The sudden resignation on September 1st of Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda after less than a year in office, following the similarly...
India loses its shine
Exame - August 2008
Right now, with billions glued to their TV sets watching the Olympics, few would doubt that this year most of the world’s attention has been on China. Thanks to Tibet and Sudan, its international image has probably worsened but at home feelings of national...
Optimism about climate change
Exame - July 2008
It is always right to look at agreements made at the annual Group of Eight (G8) summits of rich-country leaders with skepticism. These summits are little more than photo-opportunities with banquets attached. But the response of environmentalists to the...
Inflation in the emerging markets
Exame - June 2008
In what feels like the blink of an eye, the emerging markets have been transformed from being global agents of deflation to becoming the sources of a new wave of inflation all around the world. The transmission mechanism for this transformation...
The era of books about eras
Exame - May 2008
THIS is the era of books about the rise of new eras. The debacle in Iraq, the decline in America’s worldwide reputation under George Bush, the credit crunch, the fall of the dollar, the rapid economic growth in China and India, the way in which record...
The confounding commodity boom
Exame - April 2008
In the first edition of this column in January 2007, it was noted that having enjoyed a boom of about five years, commodity prices had begun to fall. Prices of oil and of most metals had peaked in the middle of 2006 and since then had fallen in price...
Hype about the credit crunch
Exame - March 2008
If you judge economic affairs according to the movements of financial markets, these are dramatic times. The collapse and rescue of Bear Stearns, America’s fifth-largest investment bank, over the period of March 15-24 was the culmination of eight volatile...
Africa between Spielberg and Bush
Exame - February 2008
It is a good time to be an African. Does that statement surprise you? It might if you look at the violence in Kenya, or the continued slaughter in the Darfur region of Sudan, or the tragic collapse of living standards in Zimbabwe, but actually this is...
Don´t despair about the dollar
Exame - January 2008
One of the most famous sayings about investment came from one of the founders of the Rothschild banking family, Baron Nathan Rothschild. In the early 19th century, at the time when Europe was riven by war, he said that "the time to buy is when blood is...
Asia´s century and its implications
Exame - December 2007
When the idea first came up, in the 1970s and 1980s, it was labelled as "the Pacific century", as it was assumed that the 21st century would be dominated by the countries around the Pacific Ocean, especially Japan, the United States and in a smaller way...
The real meaning of the credit crunch
Exame - November 2007
When finance ministers, bankers, central bankers and economists gathered in their thousands for the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC, in mid-October, the mood was very different in private discussions...
Can Brazil emulate China?
Exame - October 2007
Economic growth in Brazil in recent years has been disappointing, especially to the country’s many well-wishers abroad. During a commodity-price boom, and record rates of global economic growth, Brazil should have done better than 3% a year. But the surge...
Globalisation and the credit crunch
Exame - September 2007
August was such a hot month in the financial markets that it brought out all the sweatiest old cliches in the market-commentators’ lexicon. Traders were said constantly to be nervous, because of all the uncertainty, as if every day in the financial markets...
China turns inflationary
Exame - August 2007
For the past five years, companies around the world have talked of “the China price”, by which they mean the lowest price in their industry. China has come to be synonymous with low, or even falling prices as Chinese manufacturing has grown bigger and...
Pain and the solution to climate change
Exame - July 2007
The debate over climate change has moved on—thank goodness. The gathering in Heiligendamm, Germany in early June of the leaders of the G8 rich industrial countries showed that there is no longer any serious dispute over whether to take action to reduce...
Tough task for America´s next president
Exame - June 2007
We are in a post-ideological age. Unlike during the Cold War, there are no longer any easy labels to attach to ourselves, or with which to describe other people: left or right; socialist or capitalist; labouring class or ruling class; pro-Soviet or pro-American....
Questioning China´s growth
Exame - May 2007
At every stage during China’s remarkable three decades of economic growth, as the country shook off the dead hand of Maoist central planning, outsiders have scratched their heads and wondered whether Chinese growth was really sustainable. They had only...
The real danger in America
Exame - April 2007
So far, it has been the scary monster that has stayed in the forest. Economists have been worrying for at least two years, in some cases more, about the potential impact on the world economy of an American recession. Financial markets really began to...
The state´s role in India´s growth
Exame - March 2007
What is the secret of economic development? Many of those who studied the success of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in the 1960s, 70s and 80s, and who now study China, have pointed to the government, or the state. They know that central planning, in the...
The revival of Japan
Exame - February 2007
In today’s globalised economy, with fast-growing and appealing countries like the BRICs, it is hard being a rich, mature economy like Japan. By comparison to them, you look so dull and ponderous. It is especially hard when you moved so quickly from being...
Commodities and global growth
Exame - January 2007
The world economy has had such a fantastic four years that it has seemed almost rude, or perhaps imprudent, to ask why. The usual answer that is given is globalisation, the increase in worldwide openness to trade and capital flows that is associated with...